The holiday shopping season shifts into high gear this week, but Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday sales aren’t likely to have quite the sizzle as in years past.

Many shoppers started earlier this year, mindful of possible inventory shortages stemming from supply chain issues. And with retailer costs rising along with inflation generally, industry analysts have been predicting fewer blockbuster deals centered specifically on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday, the coming weekend or Cyber Monday.

“There will be some (deep discounts), but they might not be as enticing as in the past,” said Sabrina Helm, an associate professor of retailing and consumer sciences at the University of Arizona. “For certain products, supplies aren’t available, so there will be fewer promotions.”

Many people have gotten the message: Nearly two in five shoppers said they planned to start earlier this season, according to a survey of 4,000 consumers by consultant and professional-services company Deloitte. Retailers have been trying to spread out the season, partly to deal with their own store staffing issues.

Here are some themes to watch for:

Early store hours on Black Friday

A few years ago, it seemed that retailers were battling over who could keep their stores open the longest, including on Thanksgiving Day. That trend around Thursday hours has eased, partly out of concern for keeping employees content at a time when finding adequate staff has been difficult.